The probability that any given American will have a White Christmas is 27 percent.
The probability that any given American will have a “white Christmas” in any given year, selected at random, is approximately 27 percent.
A “white Christmas,” for our purposes, is one in which 1 inch or more of snow is on the ground. I compiled data from the National Weather Service and NOAA for the past 50 years on the probability of having at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on December 25 for every micropolitan and metropolitan statistical area in the United States. I combined this data with data from the US Census over the time spans concerned, made my computer do some magical mathematics, and, voila! - you have your probability.
Apparently, for 3/4ths of the US, dreaming is as close as we’ll get to a white Christmas.
