Four Important Points on SOPA and PIPA

January 19, 2012

Four things worth noting:

  • The fight over SOPA and PIPA is not an unfair fight unduly influenced by billions of dollars in dirty money.  While it is true that a billion dollar lobbying industry headed by Capitol Hill insiders helped piece together the bills, the primary opposition to them is also a multibillion dollar industry.  Corporate entities like Google make lots of money off of content, most of which is legal and some of which is illegal.
  • SOPA and PIPA do not legally place an undue burden on businesses in the sense that it simply requires them to do their due diligence to fight the crime facilitated by their service.  This is standard practice.  Bars don’t serve drunks, pawn shops can’t buy stolen goods, photo labs won’t reprint copyrighted pictures, and pharmacies have to verify narcotic prescriptions.  It’s not silly to suggest that YouTube, which makes money off of each video view, should have to reasonably ensure their content is legal.
  • It’s offensive to suggest that SOPA would place the US on par with China, Syria, or Iran in terms of repression and censorship.  Being tracked down and imprisoned, beaten, or executed for your internet activity is not the same as losing blog access.  Ask the protestors in Tahrir Square.
  • There really is a lot of pirated content online.*  Any ideas on how to actually reduce that?  SOPA is bad, but we all have a compelling interest in reducing the theft of other people’s property, so let’s have alternatives from the anti-SOPA crowd.

*Pet Peeve: It rings a bit hollow for some of my friends to be protesting SOPA while they continue to download movies, music, and games illegally from torrents online.


The Blessings of Christmas Part 2 – Heroes and Losers

December 22, 2011

As 2011 draws to a close, the slate of world leaders who are no longer wielding influence is long. Indeed, many countries now face a frighteningly open future in which national destinies hinge on the graciousness and responsibility of survivng populations.

For those no longer living under the tyranny of Mubarak, Qaddafi, Kim Jong Il, or any of the other leaders whose stranglehold on their people has been released, 2011 is a spectacular year. The challenges brought by the future are great, but the helplessness of oppression is gone.

By contrast, the passing of Vaclav Havel reminds us to be thankful for the best of us – those unafraid to stand against evil in all its forms. Havel was such a man, and Europe will surely miss him.


I’m dreaming of a…

December 20, 2011
The probability that any given American will have a White Christmas is 27 percent.

The probability that any given American will have a White Christmas is 27 percent.

The probability that any given American will have a “white Christmas” in any given year, selected at random, is approximately 27 percent.

A “white Christmas,” for our purposes, is one in which 1 inch or more of snow is on the ground.  I compiled data from the National Weather Service and NOAA for the past 50 years on the probability of having at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on December 25 for every micropolitan and metropolitan statistical area in the United States.  I combined this data with data from the US Census over the time spans concerned, made my computer do some magical mathematics, and, voila! - you have your probability.

Apparently, for 3/4ths of the US, dreaming is as close as we’ll get to a white Christmas.


The Blessings of Christmas – Part 1

December 20, 2011

Over the next few days, I’ll post a few things that, as a politically active researcher, I’m thankful for this year.

Blessing 1 – A Decline in Child Abuse

In theory, economic hardship is bad for families and bad for crime.  As money and jobs run short, tempers rise, and the added head results in more robberies, more spousal abuse, and more divorces.

It is a blessing, then, that this holiday season, the Department of Health and Human Services can report a continuation in the steady decline of child abuse in the US.  Tomorrow, DHHS is set to announce that between 2008 and 2010, abuse and neglect of children fell by more than 14 percent, while child fatalities declined by 8.5 percent.  Rates of abuse, including cases where children were abused multiple times in the course of a year, fell from 10.3 incidences per 1,000 children to 10 per 1,000, representing the lowest level on record.

Any child abuse is too much, but thank God for the welcome decline in neglect, assault, and harassment of children.


Over-regulated, Under-worked

October 4, 2011

This video is a somewhat humorous take on the over-regulation that has swept America.

In the 1950s, one in 20 workers needed a license from the government to earn a living.  Today, that number is one in 3.

Welcome to the world of free enterprise.


Value of a Human Life

October 4, 2011
The Cost of a Human Life

The US EPA places a dollar value of $7.9 million on human life.

The EPA estimates that a human life is worth 7.9 million dollars.

They use this figure when calculating the cost of implementing a new regulation.  Supposedly, if we’re worth $7.9 million each, the regulation should cost less to implement than the cost of losing the lives at risk absent implementation.

Figures on the cost of business compliance with Federal regulations range from $1.2 trillion annually to $2.2 trillion annually.  Using the Small Business Administration’s non-partisan figure of $1.75 trillion annually for business compliance costs, we can say that we spend $5,700 per year on compliance for every resident of the US.

But that’s not the only compliance figure.  There are many others, but for the sake of simplicity, we’ll look at the 6.6 billion hours spent per year filling out tax forms.  At the median wage of $16.27 per hour for opportunity cost, this means Americans forgo $10.7 trillion in opportunity cost just doing their taxes.

States also have compliance costs.  Using data from the Small Business Administration, it’s reasonable to estimate these costs at $3.7 trillion  per year.

Let’s add this up: $10.7 + $2.2 + $3.7 = $16.7 trillion (rounding causes imprecision).

Note that this figure includes a substantial amount of what economists call “dead weight loss” – the value that should be in the economy, but isn’t because of some complicating factor.  In this case, that factor is regulation.

Now, for the fun math.  The civilian labor force is (generously) 155 million people in the US.  Dividing compliance costs by the labor force gives us $107,742 in lost value per person per year because of compliance costs.

Now, divide the figure the EPA uses by the lifespan of the average American.  The result: $108,000 per year – or approximately equal to the cost of compliance with regulations.

The figures used above are accurate figures, though their real impact on the economy would likely be somewhere well short of 107,000 additional dollars per person per year.  Nevertheless, the math is clear.

If the US government wants to dramatically increase wealth (by as much as 100%) in the US, they should lessen the ridiculous burden of regulation.


It’s the economy, stupid?

October 4, 2011

With electoral season well underway, it’s worth noting that, while the economy will undoubtedly be the biggest issue in the election, the earliest arbiters of the election might not care quite as much about the economy as other states.

The unemployment rate in NH and Iowa, the two earliest presidential determiners, is substantially lower (about 40% lower) than the national average, and within a standard deviation of national levels prior to the recession.

Unemployment and Primaries

This is perhaps the reason that creating jobs is third on the list of most important issues for NH voters, behind cutting the size of government and reducing the debt/deficit.

This is not to say the economy isn’t important.  Poverty is on the rise in both states, and median income has fallen substantially.


Who owns the US?

October 3, 2011

Who owns the USA?

Ostensibly, we do.  But the numbers are striking – 30% of the US is owned directly by the Federal government.  See below for the striking amount of land owned in each state by the Federal government.

Perhaps with this in mind, the Obama Administration has launched an initiative to help shed off “excess” Federal land.  You can play with the map and see what specific properties are “for sale” in your state!  You can even download the list for use in Excel.

Excess Federal Property

The blue indicates property deemed to be excess by the US government.


Penalizing Savings

October 3, 2011

There has been a 54 percent reduction in the personal rate of savings since the fundamental tax reform of 1986.

Earlier, I commented (quite poorly) on why we might want to broaden the tax base.  There are many good arguments in favor of broadening the tax base.

There are several important arguments about how broadening the tax base might be bad, however.  As Alex Brill and Alan Viard point out:

One way base broadening can impede tax neutrality is by amplifying the income tax’s inherent distortion between current and future consumption…Broadening the income tax base may increase the saving penalty, undermining the pursuit of economic efficiency…The income tax’s penalty on saving causes an inefficient distortion of consumer choice and lowers the accumulation of national wealth and the long-run rise of living standards.

The fundamental tax reform of 1986, which was largely focused on base broadening and lowering marginal rates, may have had a sharp impact on the rate of personal savings.  From 1960-1986, Americans saved 9.1% of their personal income; from 1986-2011, Americans saved 4.9%, a 54% reduction over the previous period.  The decline is illustrated below.

The Rate of Personal Savings, 1986-2011

There are many reasons Americans don’t save as much any more; perhaps the tax code is one of them.


The Pursuit of Happiness?

September 4, 2011

What makes us happy?

We all know lots of things that don’t make us happy – substance abuse, traffic, broken marriages, bankruptcy, etc.  With roughly a billion self-help books on the market, you’d think we have an answer.

But what actually makes us happy?  It seems the ways we have pursued culturally haven’t helped.  As noted in The Happiness Hypothesis:

As the level of wealth has doubled or tripled in the last fifty years in many industrialized nations, the levels of happiness and satisfaction with life that people report have not changed, and depression has actually become more common.

I don’t pretend to know what actually makes people happy, but over the next few days, I’ll put up some stats that tend to correlate pretty closely with how frequently people report they are happy.

Feel free to take some guesses.


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